Cobol - OT: The Future

Author

OT: The Future

Charles Hottel

2007-04-12, 9:55 pm

What do you think the next 20 to 30 years will be like? If you are like
most people you think it will be like the last 20 to 30 years and there is a
good chance that you would be unprepared for the powerful changes coming and
the the rapid pace of those changes.

That is just a small part of the thesis of a book I have just read: The
Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology by Ray Kurzweil. It
describes the exponential nature of technology and gives a lot of
predictions ( many seem at first to be too fantastic to be believed) for
what the future holds along with the data and reasoning behind his
predictions. In particular it discusses genetics (biotechnology),
nanotechnology and robotics (hard AI). Along the way the book touches on
cosmology, quantum physics, life extension, DNA, evolution and artificial
intelligence and many other interesting subjects. There are extensive
footnotes to references on the web and elsewhere. While he is an optimist,
he understands and discusses the potential downside of these technologies
and what we might do to avoid wiping ourseleves out.

I personally experienced a major wake-up call from reading this book. The
early part of this new century will certainly be a critical time for
humanity and the sooner we start thinking about it the better prepared we
will be. You may or may not agree with his reasoning and conclusions but
this book will definitely give you a lot to think about. Well I just found
it to be an extremely interesting book and so I thought some of you here
might also like it. YMMV.

Some of you have probably already read this book and if so I would be
interested in getting your opinions and impressions.

2007-04-12, 9:55 pm

In article <MhATh.2380$3P3.811@newsread3.news.pas.earthlink.net>,
Charles Hottel <chottel@earthlink.net> wrote:
>What do you think the next 20 to 30 years will be like?

I think they'll be, like, about two or three decades long.

As Sam Goldwyn (and a few others) is reputed to have said, 'It is
difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.'

DD

Charles Hottel

2007-04-12, 9:55 pm

<docdwarf@panix.com> wrote in message news:evmk9u$53c$1@reader2.panix.com...
> In article <MhATh.2380$3P3.811@newsread3.news.pas.earthlink.net>,
> Charles Hottel <chottel@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> I think they'll be, like, about two or three decades long.
>
> As Sam Goldwyn (and a few others) is reputed to have said, 'It is
> difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.'
>
> DD
>

Yes it is difficult but this guy has a pretty good track record. For
example he predicted that a computer would beat the world chess champion and
he was only off by one year (it happened about a year ahead of his
prediction). I could cite more but it sounds like you may not be that
intersted ( and that is ok by me). Most futurists make predictions without
giving much detailed information about their reasoning or the information on
which they base it. I think that is because many just make off the hip wild
ass guesses.

I liked this book because I already have an interest in many of the areas
that he discussed and there are references to lot of addition material that
is likewise interesting. I think this makes it of value regardless of any
reactions to or accuracy of the predictions.

I am not trying to start a Ray Kurzweil cult or establish a Singularitarian
religion here. Like most things on the internet anyone can choose to pursue
whatever they find interesting and likewise ignore whatever is not of
interest.

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